Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 11.840048 13.298845 14.972830 17.061050 19.632983 22.748148 26.889650
2024-10-27 9.699077 11.372929 13.432828 16.220844 20.008860 25.164331 33.091013
2024-11-03 9.476263 11.567973 14.320945 18.368453 24.484516 34.029800 51.783521
2024-11-10 8.946179 11.232545 14.389802 19.328932 27.451904 41.719938 73.659222
2024-11-17 8.028724 10.234193 13.360592 18.425339 27.179525 43.731953 85.823159
2024-11-24 7.474774 9.675492 12.880195 18.265870 28.090704 48.293810 108.512967
2024-12-01 7.017072 9.203545 12.462654 18.120979 28.965932 53.144976 138.537501
2024-12-08 6.666839 8.853864 12.187216 18.160980 30.193259 59.414795 185.644939
2024-12-15 6.404901 8.611270 12.049527 18.413244 31.916082 67.970463 269.491985
2024-12-22 6.015731 8.142038 11.495829 17.815049 31.625847 70.642235 330.586037
2024-12-29 5.775666 7.887897 11.274816 17.815813 32.720721 78.477216 489.951958
2025-01-05 5.464659 7.501000 10.796723 17.251924 32.323759 80.988923 623.056336
2025-01-12 5.091587 7.012612 10.141169 16.327652 31.014998 80.153667 728.700248
2025-01-19 4.768023 6.588076 9.569824 15.519984 29.875589 79.617680 871.036730
2025-01-26 4.893456 6.897928 10.306609 17.518869 36.892990 123.562777 38461.299751
2025-02-02 4.842548 6.910052 10.508044 18.410631 41.234229 165.717072 NaN
2025-02-09 4.579022 6.546189 9.981702 17.571351 39.745837 164.867808 NaN
2025-02-16 4.419544 6.352143 9.761955 17.423072 40.582116 185.663812 NaN
2025-02-23 4.273843 6.173883 9.558892 17.288308 41.445704 210.256887 NaN
2025-03-02 4.157981 6.041154 9.433445 17.325517 42.981238 249.061359 NaN
2025-03-09 4.070946 5.953998 9.389809 17.560102 45.409154 314.678988 NaN
2025-03-16 3.908036 5.725101 9.051067 17.003626 44.439959 323.563512 NaN
2025-03-23 3.811273 5.609798 8.932260 17.004337 45.865740 390.600669 NaN